Note: InfoLink classifies Pakistan from Middle East country to Asia Pacific country from 2023
1.In February, China’s customs export data was released. China exported 14.85GW of photovoltaic modules in January, an increase of 32% compared to December last year, and an increase of 55% year-on-year in January last year; in February, it exported 14.82GW of photovoltaic modules. Compared with January, it was almost flat and increased by 6% year-on-year.
In the fourth quarter of last year, due to the accumulation of inventory in the overseas market, the momentum of pulling goods was relatively weak. It was originally expected that the beginning of this year would continue the off-season at the end of last year, but the customs export data showed that the momentum of overseas pulling goods in January and February increased significantly, even close to the peak season last year. In addition to implying that the duration of the impact of inventory is not as long as expected, it also highlights that the growth of overseas photovoltaic demand has exceeded expectations.
Europe imported 8.6GW and 8.4GW of photovoltaic modules from China in January and February, respectively, an increase of 120% and 48% compared with the same period last year, and a month-on-month ratio of 46% and -3% respectively; in 2023, a total of 17GW of photovoltaic modules will be imported from China , an increase of 77% compared to the same period last year.
Europe will import a total of 86.6GW of photovoltaic modules from China in 2022. However, the excessive purchases in the first half of the year quickly piled up the inventory level, which led to a continuous decline in China's photovoltaic module imports in the second half of the year, and the annual installed capacity is only about 40-45GW After deducting the capacity ratio and in-transit inventory, it is estimated that there will still be about 20-30GW of inventory released until 2023; however, judging from the customs data in January and February, the European market has resumed a strong momentum of pulling goods, which represents the expectation of the local market Even if there is still a certain level of inventory, a large number of goods are still needed to cope with the rapid growth of demand.
It is worth noting that the first quarter of previous years was the off-season for the European market. However, the volume of modules imported from China in January and February this year was almost at the level of last year’s peak season. In addition to the expectation of local demand growth, it also shows that the competition in the European market is very fierce. It is regarded as an important strategic market, so a large number of goods are prepared in advance to seize market opportunities when demand increases.
The Asia-Pacific market imported 2.5GW and 3.1GW of photovoltaic modules from China in January and February, respectively, an increase of 17% and 24% month-on-month, compared with -13% and -47% in the same period last year; cumulative imports from China in 2023 5.6GW photovoltaic modules, a decrease of 36% compared with the same period last year.
The year-on-year decrease was mainly affected by India. Last year, India imposed a 40% tariff on components due to the BCD tariff. Local manufacturers rushed to import a large amount in the first quarter before the tariff took effect, resulting in a year-on-year decrease this year. India imported about 8.9GW of photovoltaic modules from China last year, but 8.1GW of them were imported before the tariffs came into effect in the first quarter. India's demand has picked up significantly, with imports from China reaching 395MW in January and further growing to 643MW in February.
If the influence of India is excluded, the import of photovoltaic modules from China by other countries in the Asia-Pacific market in January increased by 27% compared with last year, and in February it increased by as much as 116%. The main sources of demand include Japan, Australia, Pakistan and other Southeast Asian countries.
The Americas imported 2.6GW and 1.9GW of photovoltaic modules from China in January and February, representing a month-on-month ratio of 58% and -24%, respectively. In 2023, a total of 4.5GW of photovoltaic modules will be imported from China.
The main importing country in the Americas is Brazil, which imported 1.9GW and 1.3GW of photovoltaic modules from China in January and February respectively. In 2023, it will import 3.2GW from China, accounting for 70% of the total imports in the Americas market. Brazil's 14.300 Act came into effect in January this year, which will levy grid usage fees for distributed projects, which will have a serious impact on the Brazilian market where distributed projects account for more than 70%. Therefore, Brazil will import about 18GW of photovoltaic modules from China in 2022. However, Although the import volume from China in the fourth quarter of 2022 showed a significant decline compared with other months, it rebounded again by nearly 90% to 1.9GW in January 2023, and there was still 1.3GW in February, which may be due to the previous application for grid connection The project has a certain installation period, and its demand for goods will continue from 2022 to 2023. Therefore, although there is a certain level of local inventory based on the amount of grid connection, overall demand can still be maintained in 2023. Other countries in the American market mainly include Colombia and Chile. Although their overall demand is relatively small compared with Brazil, it can be seen that the market size has increased significantly compared with last year.
The Middle East imported 776MW and 851MW of photovoltaic modules from China in January and February, a month-on-month increase of 1% and 10% respectively, and an increase of more than 200% compared to the same period last year. The Middle East market will usher in substantial growth in 2022, mainly from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The total imports of the two countries in January and February reached 1GW, accounting for 62% of the overall Middle East. Driven by the wave of energy transformation last year, the Middle East countries launched a series of green energy-related investment plans. The main source of demand is a number of ground-based large-scale projects. There are still many projects under construction, and Chinese manufacturers can also be seen It is expected that the Middle East market will continue to grow in 2023, and the downward trend in supply chain prices will also help promote the development of photovoltaics in the Middle East.
The demand for Chinese photovoltaic modules in Africa is relatively small, only 3.4GW in 2022, and 393MW and 544MW will be imported from China in January and February 2023, respectively. Among them, South Africa is the main source of demand, accounting for 61% of the current 2023 demand in Africa. The main source of power generation in South Africa is coal. However, facing a severe power shortage last year, photovoltaic power generation has become one of the solutions. In January and February, the cumulative import of Chinese modules in South Africa has reached 571MW, an increase of more than three times compared to the same period last year. Key countries for the development of photovoltaics in the region.
Affected by a large number of purchases in the first half of 2022, the export data of photovoltaic modules in the second half of 2022 showed an overall decline. It is generally expected in the industry to be caused by excessive inventory levels. In the case of customs imports, the kinetic energy of goods purchases in various places has rebounded rapidly. Therefore, it is necessary to rethink the impact of inventory on demand, and how the strategic allocation of manufacturers under fierce competition will affect market demand for goods purchases. On the whole, we can still find that photovoltaic manufacturers have better expectations for the growth of photovoltaics in 2023 from the strength of goods in various regions, but it is necessary to continue to wait and see the impact of policy changes and inventory accumulation. The traditional off-season of the market, but InfoLink conservatively believes that the second quarter will only achieve a small growth compared with the first quarter.
Post time: Apr-20-2023