Previously, according to the production capacity plan announced by the company, it is estimated that the new production capacity of TOPCon batteries will exceed 150GW in 2023, but at present, the release of TOPCon battery production capacity may not be as expected. We believe that the main reason is that the process maturity still needs to continue to improve. The main difference between TOPCon battery and PERC battery is the diffusion of boron and the preparation of oxide layer. The uniformity and thickness of tunneling oxide layer and poly layer will have a certain impact on the conversion efficiency, and continuous experiments are required to achieve the maturity of the process. . Among them, the companies that promoted R&D and production earlier have certain leading advantages, and their profitability may also be better than expected. We recommend paying attention to leading battery companies, equipment companies and material companies.
▍TOPCon battery capacity release or less than expected.
The development of N-type batteries is an inevitable trend in the industry, and TOPCon battery technology has become one of the important directions of N-type battery technology. According to the expansion situation and plans announced by various companies, by the end of 2022, the production capacity of TOPCon batteries in the market has exceeded 40GW. We expect that the new production capacity of TOPCon batteries will exceed 150GW in 2023. In addition, the TOPCon battery production line is compatible with the PERC battery production line, among which more than 100GW of PERC production capacity is feasible and competitive to be upgraded to TOPCon. But at present, the production capacity release of TOPCon batteries is not as expected. On the one hand, the selection of process routes is relatively diverse; on the other hand, the maturity and stability of the preparation process still need to be improved.
▍TOPCon battery process maturity still needs to continue to improve.
We believe that the release of TOPCon battery capacity is less than expected mainly due to two aspects: process maturity and equipment selection. From the process point of view, the difference in process between TOPCon battery and PERC battery mainly reflects the preparation of diffusion and oxide layer. PERC battery is phosphorus diffusion, TOPCon battery is boron diffusion; Silicon, TOPCon cells prepare tunnel oxide layer, Poly layer and silicon nitride layer on the back. The tunneling oxide layer and the poly layer together form a passivation contact structure, in which the uniformity and thickness of the tunneling oxide layer and the poly layer will have a certain impact on the conversion efficiency, and the cooperation between the tunneling oxide layer and the poly layer is also To experiment, the law of cooperation between the tunneling oxide layer, poly layer and silicon wafer also needs continuous exploration. In addition, LPCVD and PECVD are also different in the preparation process, and manufacturers are also exploring the selection of process routes. This situation has led to the release of TOPCon battery capacity less than expected, and at the same time, companies that promote R&D and production earlier will also have a certain leading edge.
▍The demand for TOPCon batteries is strong, or the supply is in short supply.
As N-type batteries are gradually put on the market, based on the higher efficiency and lower temperature coefficient of N-type batteries, and the cost-effective advantages gradually become prominent as the cost declines, the market's acceptance of N-type products is getting higher and higher. On the one hand, domestic PV developers have stipulated the bidding scale of N-type module products in the bidding; on the other hand, the distributed PV market in Europe has a strong demand for TOPCon products. In this case, N-type and other high-efficiency cells with obvious cost-effective advantages may face a structurally tense situation and will maintain a premium level for a long time, while leading manufacturers with a variety of new high-efficiency cell capacities and products are expected to further increase Consolidate profit advantage. At the same time, the continuous expansion of production capacity will also bring about an increase in demand for equipment and materials.
▍Risk factors:
The demand of the photovoltaic industry is lower than expected; the progress of technology maturity is lower than expected; the process route is facing controversy; the price of raw materials has fallen more than expected.
▍Investment strategy.
The expansion of N-type TOPCon battery capacity may be less than previously expected, mainly due to the impact of process maturity and different process route choices, and with the increase in demand, TOPCon battery products may be in short supply. We recommend companies that have an early deployment in the TOPCon battery field and have technological advantages. The expansion of production capacity will also increase the demand for equipment and materials.
TOPCon battery capacity release or less than expected.
The development of N-type batteries is an inevitable trend in the industry, and TOPCon battery technology has become one of the important directions of N-type battery technology. According to the expansion situation and plans announced by various companies, by the end of 2022, the production capacity of TOPCon batteries in the market has exceeded 40GW. We expect that the new production capacity of TOPCon batteries will exceed 150GW in 2023. In addition, the TOPCon battery production line is compatible with the PERC battery production line, among which more than 100GW of PERC production capacity is feasible and competitive to be upgraded to TOPCon. But at present, the production capacity release of TOPCon batteries is not as expected. On the one hand, the selection of process routes is relatively diverse; on the other hand, the maturity and stability of the preparation process still need to be improved.
Post time: Jun-09-2023